We study optimal control in models with latent factors where the agent controls the distribution over actions, rather than actions themselves, in both discrete and continuous time. To encourage exploration of the state space, we reward exploration with Tsallis Entropy and derive the optimal distribu…
In a two-period financial market where a stock is traded dynamically and European options at maturity are traded statically, we study the so-called martingale Schrödinger bridge Q*; that is, the minimal-entropy martingale measure among all models calibrated to option prices. This minimization is sh…
In most cases, insurance contracts are linked to the financial markets, such as through interest rates or equity-linked insurance products. To motivate an evaluation rule in these hybrid markets, Artzner et al. (2022) introduced the notion of insurance-finance arbitrage. In this paper we extend thei…
The prospects of assessing neural complexity (NC) by $q$-statistics of the systemic organization of different types and levels of brain activity were studied. In 70 adult subjects, NC was assessed via the parameter $q$ of $q$-statistics, applied to the ongoing and EEG and its spectral power of 20 sc…
The inverse problem of statistical mechanics involves finding the minimal Hamiltonian that is consistent with some observed set of correlation functions. This problem has received renewed interest in the analysis of biological networks; in particular, several such networks have been described succes…
Many of the most consequential dynamics in human cognition occur \emph{before} events become explicit: before decisions are finalized, emotions are labeled, or meanings stabilize into narrative form. These pre-event states are characterized by ambiguity, contextual tension, and competing latent inte…
Ising models with pairwise interactions are the least structured, or maximum-entropy, probability distributions that exactly reproduce measured pairwise correlations between spins. Here we use this equivalence to construct Ising models that describe the correlated spiking activity of populations of …
Recordings of electrical brain activity carry information about a person's cognitive health. For recording EEG signals, a very common setting is for a subject to be at rest with its eyes closed. Analysis of these recordings often involve a dimensionality reduction step in which electrodes are groupe…
Daily probability changes in Kalshi macro prediction markets forecast cryptocurrency realized volatility through two distinct channels. The monetary policy channel, measured by Fed rate repricing on KXFED contracts, predicts Bitcoin volatility in sample with t = 3.63 and p < 0.001 but exhibits regim…
The dynamical evolution of multiscaling in financial time series is investigated using time-dependent Generalized Hurst Exponents (GHE), $H_q$, for various values of the parameter $q$. Using $H_q$, we introduce a new visual methodology to algorithmically detect critical changes in the scaling of the…